In recent times, the Republican Party has had a reputation of being a white, monoethnic party while the Democratic Party has maintained a reputation of being a racially diverse, poor and working class party. However, the 2020 US House of Representative Elections deviate from these reputations.
In the 2018 elections, Republicans had a net loss of 10 women compared to Democrats’ net gain of 24 women. Realizing this unsettling gap, incumbent Republican Congresswomen, such as Elise Stefanik (R-NY21) and Susan Brooks (R-IN05), worked hard between 2018 and now to recruit 277 female GOP candidates, 94 of whom won their district’s Republican nomination, and 31-32 of whom won their respective race.
House Republicans added a record number of women to their ranks, so many, in fact, that this year was coined “The Year of the Republican Woman.” Republicans will add 18-19 new women (one race outstanding) compared to Democrats’ 9; Democrats will only net gain 1 woman, for they lost 8 women either to retirements or losses to Republicans. This compares with Republicans’ net gain of 16-17 women since only two GOP women retired while none lost re-election. In fact, of the 12 Democratic seats flipped so far by Republicans, 9 of them were flipped by Republican women.
Additionally, the GOP doubled the number of ethnic minorities in their House Conference. While the House Democratic Caucus will still be more ethnically diverse than the Republican Conference, the incoming freshman class shows a troubling trend for Democrats - a diversifying Republican Party.
Republicans added twice as many Hispanics/Latinos to congress this year than the Democrats (4 GOP, 2 Dem). While the Democrats will still have a large majority of Hispanics/Latinos in Congress, this upward trend for Republicans is consistent with the voting shift of Latino populations in Florida and Texas. Many majority Hispanic/Latino districts and counties shifted several percentage points toward Trump and the GOP, showing how large this shift is. Prime examples of this are FL-27 and TX-15 as well as Miami-Dade County, FL and Val Verde and Zapata Counties, TX. FL-27 shifted 8 points, TX-15 shifted 18 points, Miami-Dade, FL shifted 14 points, Val Verde, TX shifted 18 points, and Zapata, TX, a county last won by Republicans in 1920, shifted 38 points toward Republicans.
In addition to welcoming more Latinos to Congress than the Democrats, the Republicans also gained 2 Asian-American Republicans in the House, while the Democrats netted 0 (They added 2 representatives but also lost 2 representatives.). Congresswomen-elect Young Kim (R-CA39) and Michelle Steel (R-CA48) are two of the three first Korean American women elected to Congress (the other being Rep-elect Marilyn Strickland (D-WA10)). Democrats will still have a majority of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in Congress, but the fact that Democrats netted 0 Asian American/Pacific Islanders while Republicans added 2 should catch Democrats’ attention.
Republicans also added 2 African-Americans to Congress, Congressmen-elect Burgess Owens (R-UT04) and Byron Donalds (R-FL19), compared to Democrats’ 6. Taking into account retirements and defeated incumbents, Republicans have a net gain of 1, and Democrats have a net gain of 5. (Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX23) retired, and Rep. Lacy Clay (D-MO01) lost re-nomination.)
While the Democrats still added three times the amount of African Americans to Congress, Republicans ran many prominent African-American candidates such as Kim Klacik (MD07), Tamika Hamilton (CA03), Joe Collins (CA43), and Wesley Hunt (TX07). Klacik and Collins both gained national attention for their social media advertisements, Klacik walking through “real Baltimore,” and Collins critiquing Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA43) for living in a mansion outside of her impoverished district. Hamilton and Hunt outperformed all polls and predictions and came within single digits of defeating their opponents in Democratic-leaning districts. These Black Republican candidates, though unsuccessful in their bids this election cycle, have bright futures in a changing, post-Trump GOP.
Republicans also elected the first Iranian American Representative, Stephanie Bice (R-OK05), as well as former-Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA50) of Lebanese descent, giving Republicans a majority of Arab/Middle Eastern Representatives in Congress. The Democrats added no Arab/Middle Eastern Americans this year. In fact, they will have 2 fewer Arab/Middle Eastern Representatives than they had in the previous Congress; Rep. Donna Shalala (D-FL27) and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL26) lost re-election. These Republican gains and Democratic losses of Arab/Middle Eastern Representatives are in spite of attempts by Democrats to paint the GOP as the party of Islamophobia.
Republicans also added Yvette Harrell (R-NM02), a member of the Cherokee Nation, to Congress, while the Democrats added no Native Americans this election cycle. This will give the GOP a majority of Native Americans in the House during the 117th Congress. This is yet another troubling result for Democrats, especially since they are unlikely to make electoral progress in the House under a Biden/Harris Administration.
In addition to Republican women and ethnic minorities added by Republicans this year, the GOP also added 4 members who are naturalized citizens: Young Kim (CA39; South Korea), Michelle Steel (CA48; South Korea), Carlos Giménez (FL26; Cuba), and Victoria Spartz (IN05; Soviet Union/Ukraine). This compares to the Democrats’ 0 naturalized citizens added this year (-1 net loss when considering defeated incumbents).
Here is a chart showing new women, ethnic minorities, and naturalized citizens to the House this year:
Here is a chart taking retirements and defeated incumbents into account:
In response to the Left-wing “Squad” that includes the infamous outspoken Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY14), four incoming Republican members who either grew up under Socialist regimes or are children of refugees from Socialist regimes have formed an anti-Socialist “Freedom Squad.” These Representatives-elect are Carlos Giménez (R-FL26), Victoria Spartz (R-IN05), Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY11), and Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL27). Malliotakis, the only Republican Representative from New York City, stated the purpose of forming the Freedom Squad: “Freedom for a strong economy. Less government. That’s why our families fled oppressive regimes. Our families fled from oppressive countries with the very same policies that AOC and the Squad are promoting.”
It is clear that the election predictions and polls were wrong in many House races. For instance, 11 House races were won by republicans that at least two major political pundits rated as ‘Lean, Likely, and/or Safe D.’ These districts are from across the country, from the South in Texas and Florida, to the West Coast in California, to the Midwest in Iowa, to the East Coast in New York. Each of these races were flipped by a Republican woman or ethnic minority.
Republicans outperformed in almost every race, even coming close to flipping many “Safe D” seats across the country. A prime example of this is Texas-15, an 80% Hispanic and normally Safe Democratic district, where the Republican nominee, Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez, came within 3% of unseating Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez. This compares to Gonzalez’s comfortable 20% margin in 2018. The same pattern is manifest in certain districts of Virginia, New York, Illinois, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and California. The Democratic representatives for these seats should especially be concerned for 2022 and 2024.
Overall, the 2020 US House elections show a bright future for the post-Trump GOP. While the GOP lost the Presidency and at least 1 Senate seat, they still gained seats in the House despite election predictions and polls. The newfound diversity of the House Republican Conference strikes a blow to the false assertion that all Republicans are white supremacists and male chauvinists; it foreshadows the post-Trump GOP being a mulit-ethnic party. Assuming that 2022 follows historical precedent, the Democrats are likely to lose seats - and even the majority - in the House, especially if they continue the leftward trend of the Squad. These trends should scare Democrats and excite Republicans for down-ballot races between now and 2024, and even “Safe Democratic” seats are not safe from the hands of the diversifying post-Trump GOP.