Coronavirus cases have continued to increase in the United States. The data, however, shows that the mainstream media's narrative that states--particularly red states--are reopening too quickly, and that the United States’s case numbers prove the extreme danger of the virus, is false. Let’s look at the top five states to break down the progression and current state of coronavirus in the U.S.
The five states with the highest total number of cases are New York, California, Texas, Florida, and New Jersey. Three states have Democrat governors (NY, CA, NJ) and two have Republican governors (TX, FL). New York, California, and New Jersey have had mask mandates since before this midsummer surge. Even with a strict lockdown and slow reopening plan, New York has remained the state with the most total cases (Figure 1) and the most total deaths (Figure 2). Similarly, California has had a strict lockdown and has the second highest total number of cases. However, California’s death rate is significantly lower, even though their population is much larger than New York and New Jersey. New Jersey, on the other hand, has the second highest number of deaths, even though they only have the fifth highest number of cases. Although they have had strict lock-down orders, all three blue states have had a significant number of cases. New York and New Jersey have likely not seen this same spike due to developing a form of herd immunity. Although the lack of significant increases gives the perception of having the virus under control, their governors caused thousands of deaths through their horrendous decision making, particularly among the elederly population. California, on the other hand, continues to see spikes in cases but has been able to keep their death rate low. These numbers show that strict lockdown orders and mask mandates are not the determining factors of how fast the virus spreads and how to protect the lives of one’s state.
Texas and Florida have been very different. Considering their populations and looser guidelines, they kept their case numbers low, and more importantly, their number of deaths low, when compared to other states. As of July 13, 23 states had more deaths per million than Florida and 35 states had more deaths per million than Texas. Even though their total cases still have not matched the smaller state of New York, there has been a recent spike in cases in these states. People argue this is due to opening up too early. However, there are many other factors that explain why these numbers are going up and which specific numbers are significant.
Number of tests. The United States testing has gone up significantly. As of March 23, the United States had completed 238,632 tests. Up until May 18, the United States had completed 11,499,203 tests. As of July 13, the United States now boasts 43,238513 tests. The increased amount of testing drives the numbers up. During the beginning of the pandemic, people were only getting tested if they had significant symptoms; now, states are offering testing to everyone, including asymptomatic individuals.
Number of deaths. Because there has been a spike in cases, there will inevitably be a slight increase in deaths, but these increases have been nowhere near the significant increase in cases. In the states with recent spikes, California, Texas, and Florida, it is important to look at the deaths per million population (Figure 3). Even though these three states have had an increase in cases, the number of deaths has remained low. This could be due to the age of those testing positive. Responsible leadership isn’t just about stopping the virus; it’s also about protecting at-risk demographics and preventing people from dying. Low death rates, even in states with higher infection numbers, show that governors are doing their jobs.
Age of those with illness. The governors of New York and New Jersey both passed executive orders that forced nursing homes to admit people with COVID. Governor Desantis of Florida, on the other hand, immediately protected the elderly population. He still has designated separate COVID nursing homes to the elderly residents with COVID so that all other nursing homes can remain safe. Since this spike, up to 50% of new cases are people under the age of 35. The severity for young people is much lower, and Dr. Birx explained that this age group was particularly encouraged to stay home in the past but now are being encouraged to go get tested. Between the highly congested protests, the reopening of bars, and the increased number of parties being thrown, young people have been exposing themselves much more in the recent weeks.
“Flattening the curve” meant lowering the case and death count so the health care system did not get overwhelmed. Now that cases are going up, hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID have naturally seen a slight increase but not a significant one. This further proves that the immunocompromised and elderly populations must continue to be protected, but keeping the country closed for young, healthy individuals will lead to a continued increase in abuse, mental health issues, and suicide. Flattening the curve for these at risk populations is key, but it’s not necessarily as important for the young population. Being safe and smart is important to protect others, but the narrative that blames reopening efforts is a false attempt to make COVID-19 a political issue during an election year. Rather, we must confront the facts to see what is effective for the American people’s safety and liberty.
Figure 1. The total number of cases of the top five states biweekly from March 23 to July 13.
Figure 2. The total number of deaths of the five highest case states biweekly from March 23 to July 13.
Figure 3. The deaths per million of the top five states with the largest number of total cases as of July 13.