Whether the Ukrainians win or lose the war with Russia, the ultimate loser is Vladimir Putin. His blundered invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the incredible resistance of the Ukrainians themselves against the Russian invasion, has opened a once in a generation opportunity that I pray our president can take. There have been three main benefits of this war for the United States.
The war completely knocks Russia off the board as a serious threat. The Ukrainians, with the weaponry that has been supplied to them, have been able to completely decimate the Russian army. This is a tremendous benefit for the United States because it allows us to completely focus on China as the primary geopolitical threat. China has lost a powerful ally, been cut off from the world, and set diplomatic ties with the Europeans back decades. In 2018 the United States sought with great difficulty to prevent Europe from buying China’s 5g Wi-Fi system. If that happens again we won’t have to do any begging. Europeans also will not be as open to peace with China as they were in the past, which will unite the west against China. It also halts China’s ambition towards Taiwan because they know if they move against Taiwan, the United States and all of the west will react in unison to defend it. And no matter what your opinion is on Xi Jinping, he is not foolhardy enough to think he can take the entire West on by himself. So not only has the war revealed that Russia’s military is even weaker than expected, but it has also produced significant consequences for China.
The war has refocused the political calculation of almost every nation and causes a massive realignment in loyalties. Before this war the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was essentially defunct and countries were happy to make agreements with Russia because they faced no downsides. Whether it was the Europeans buying Russian oil, NATO members not spending enough on defense, or some nations simply staying neutral, Russia had not been seen as a threat. Instead it was merely a trading partner. But now all of that has changed. Germany will now invest more than 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP) into the military which is a massive increase from the 1.5% it spent over the entire year. Europe also is cutting itself off from Russian natural gas and oil, realizing that it could be used as a weapon against them. Finally, previously neutral nations like Sweden, Switzerland, and the Netherlands are now joining both NATO and the European Union (EU). Meanwhile any nation that might have wanted to ally itself with Russia will now have to face the prospect of cutting themselves off from all of Europe and the United States. Presently, there is no incentive for any nation to align itself with Russia.
The west has been reunited under the American banner. Before the war the Europeans had largely been distancing themselves from the United States, and even other European states. As mentioned earlier NATO was basically defunct. The war in Ukraine reinvigorated the Europeans as they realized there are other threats in this war, and they cannot win without standing with the United States. This war has been a once in a generation foreign policy boon for the United States and her allies. Hopefully, President Biden does not mess it up, because another nation will take the lead, and we will be left behind if he does.
We can finally defeat an enemy who we have been fighting for a century, since the Soviet Union was formed in 1922, and who has outlasted seventeen presidents, from Warren G. Harding to today with President Biden. If President Biden decides to actually take advantage of this moment we can not only finally defeat our longest-standing foe, but we can also reunite the west under a shared purpose, severely weaken China, and save millions of lives. But he cannot let this moment pass and he cannot let any other nation take the lead. He must take the advice of his predecessor, President Trump, and engage in America first foreign policy. Once he does so, America can finally defeat Russia.