Our final prediction for the control of the Senate will be with the Republicans having the majority, holding 52 seats to the Democrats’ 48 seats. We predict Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia will flip for the Republicans and rate them as tilt Republican, Wisconsin is lean Republican, and North Carolina is likely Republican. We predict Arizona and New Hampshire will remain Democratic, rating them respectively as tilt and lean Democratic. We will now go over the majority of the battleground states and why we expect the result we’ve predicted.
Arizona:
Though Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is pulling ahead in her race, we do not expect her senatorial counterpart Blake Masters to ride her coattails into victory. Senator Mark Kelly has a strong fundraising advantage with a solid resume stacked with experience coupled with his moderately toned rhetoric. We predict that although the election will be a nail-biter, with polling within the margin of error, Senator Kelly will narrowly pull off a victory.
Pennsylvania:
Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R) is retiring after 2 terms, and his seat is being sought by Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman and Republican celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz. Oz has been gaining a lot of ground in recent polling, and coupled with Fetterman’s disastrous debate performance, extreme leftism, and his flip-flopping between positions, we expect the race to tilt toward Oz’s favor. Furthermore, the Governor’s race being favored for Democrats does not spell doom for Oz, as a recent article from The Hill indicates around 10% of Shapiro voters plan to vote for Oz.
Wisconsin:
Republican Ron Johnson, who was expected to lose against Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, is now up five points in recent polling. This comeback has been due to the fact that Johnson has been hammering Barnes for supporting the Kenosha riots that happened in 2020, along with heavy disapproval of President Biden in the state. With such a substantial lead, we expect that Ron Johnson will keep his seat in the Senate.
Nevada:
Republican Adam Laxalt is running an incredible campaign against incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto. The Hill finds he is up by 5 points in a state that President Biden won by 2.5 points just two short years ago. In fact, it is so bad that Cortez-Masto is still running introduction ads in her own state as the incumbent. So, a combination of Laxalt being able to pin Cortez Masto down on domestic issues, as well as strong national tides against the Biden administration, we expect Laxalt to win a small yet consequential victory.
Georgia:
Governor Brian Kemp’s strong run against Stacey Abrams, leading on average by 7 points, is expected to drag Herschel Walker to victory in his race against Senator Raphael Warnock. Despite his baggage, Herschel Walker has taken advantage of the current political climate, with significant dissatisfaction with President Biden and the Democratic agenda in the state, leading us to believe that he has a strong chance at capturing the seat for the Republican Party.
Florida:
In Florida, Senator Marco Rubio is running against Representative Val Demings, averaging a lead of 7 points. We predict that Rubio will retain his seat, given Florida’s strong tilt towards Republican candidates in recent years along with the party’s heavy voter registration initiative in the state that has significantly expanded the party’s base there.
Ohio:
In Ohio, Republican candidate JD Vance is running against Democratic Representative Tim Ryan. Vance is predicted to take this Senate seat as he leads by about three points in recent polling. However, we expect the final results to produce a larger margin of victory given President Trump’s significant margin just 2 years ago along with the state’s strong tilt toward the GOP.
Colorado:
In Colorado, Republican Joe O’Dea is facing incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet. We predicted that Senator Bennett will retain his seat, currently holding about a ten-point lead over O’Dea in polling. This along with the state’s strong Democratic tilt, having voted for President Biden by 14 points, is expected to prove insurmountable for Joe O’Dea to tackle.
New Hampshire:
In New Hampshire, Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan is running for reelection against Republican Don Bolduc. We predict that Bolduc will not be able to clench that seat, as his weak fundraising and conservative stances have proven challenging to take on the one-term incumbent. Bolduc, who emerged from the party’s primary with President Trump’s endorsement, has alienated independent and swing voters, helping Senator Hassan solidify her base as a moderate and stable candidate.
Utah:
In Utah Senator Mike Lee is running against independent candidate Evan McMullin. It is highly unlikely that McMullin will take the seat due to the fact that in his last election Senator Lee won nearly 70% of the vote. McMullion is currently being backed by the Democrats in this race but it won’t really matter. The only real big news of this race is the fact that Mitt Romney hasn’t endorsed Mike Lee. But again since Lee won by such a big margin, and Utah is such a red state, Mike Lee will almost definitely remain in the Senate
Governor’s Races
Oregon:
In Oregon we expect Republican Christine Drazan to beat out Democrat Tina Kotek and Independent Betsy Johnson. In the latest polling Drazen is up at around 42%, with Kotek trailing at 39%, and Johnson at around 17%. Since Johnson is running as a moderate candidate and Kotek is running as a progressive Democrat, we expect a splitting of the traditionally Democratic vote. Combined with concerns of rising crime and drug overdoses around cities like Portland, and again an overall positive ground for Republicans, we predict that Drazan will be able to eke out a win in this race
Pennsylvania:
In Pennsylvania, we expect Democrat Josh Shapiro to beat Republican Doug Mastriano. The latest polling has the candidates within the margin of error between each other. But due to Mastriano’s hyper-Trumpian campaign, even being present at the January 6th Insurrection, and with Shapiro’s moderate positions along with establishment support, we expect Shapiro to pull out a win in this race.
Georgia:
In Georgia we expect Republican Governor Brian Kemp to beat Democrat Stacy Abrams in his reelection. He is up on average by about 8 points. Brian Kemp is running a very strong race against Stacey Abrams and has been able to resist the more Trumpian aspects of election denial while also making a strong case against an increasingly divisive Stacey Abrams. Due to his strong campaign, we expect him to easily retain his governorship.
Florida:
In Florida we expect Governor Ron DeSantis to beat Charlie Crist in his reelection campaign. He is on average up by 11 points which is a significant shift from 2018 when he won his governor’s race by only 30,000 votes. Desantis also enjoys one of the largest war chests ever compiled, amounting to nearly $100 million raised. So while this victory may not be the biggest shock, it is still very important and a potential signal towards his plans in 2024.
Texas:
In Texas, Governor Greg Abbot is predicted to beat Democrat Robert “Beto” O’Rourke. Governor Abbott leads by an average of 10 points in polls according to Real Clear Politics. O’Rourke, like his fellow Democrat Stacey Abrams, has been positioned as a radical figure in national politics. Though his campaign for Senate in 2018 was very successful for a Democrat, O’Rourke trounced state politics in favor of the national stage. His positions have alienated parents and conservative Southerners alike, and coupled with Governor Abbott’s steady candidacy, we expect the Governor to retain his seat.
Arizona:
In Arizona, Republican Kari Lake is expected to beat Democrat Katie Hobbs. In the latest polling, Lake is leading by around three to five points in state polls. Her on-television persona and easy-to-approach personality have brought her immense popularity on social media. Combined with the fact that Hobbs is suffering from an especially harsh environment for Democrats and the ongoing border crisis, we expect that Kari Lake will become the next governor of the Grand Canyon state.
Nevada:
In Nevada, Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is running against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. In the current polls, Lombardo has led by one point. But the more recent polls have him taking between a three and four-point lead over Sisolak. Because of the likely success of his counterpart Adam Laxalt in the concurrent Senate race, we predict that Lombardo will be able to eke out a victory against Sisolak.
New York:
Currently, New York has proven to be a disaster-in-waiting for state Democrats, as they are currently rushing to pour millions of dollars into media buys to prop up incumbent Democratic governor Kathy Hochul as she faces Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin. Zeldin has caught up in recent polling, with one poll even edging out Hochul by one point. However, given New York’s very strong Democratic lean and New York City’s usual turnout rate, we expect Hochul to very narrowly retain her seat.
Wisconsin
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers faces Republican businessman Tim Michels. Wisconsin has long been a battleground state, swaying their votes between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. However, Evers has faced heavy criticism from state residents over rising crime and homelessness, especially from the Kenosha riots. Michels has caught up and led in polling, and we expect him to trounce the incumbent governor.
House Predictions:
We predict a Republican majority will emerge in the House of Representatives, with the GOP netting at least 15 seats in the elections. A GOP House majority has been a forgone conclusion, but the extent of their victory is still a matter of debate. FiveThirtyEight currently has the GOP’s chances of gaining a majority in an 85-in-100 chance, while Real Clear Politics suggests Republicans will pick up anywhere from 15 to 50 seats.
Virginia’s 7th
Incumbent Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D) is facing Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega in one of the most competitive battleground districts in the country. The representative won her reelection bid last year by a mere 8,000 votes. With Governor Glenn Youngkin taking the district by 10 percentage points and Virginians disapproving of the Biden administration in staggering numbers, we expect Vega to eke out a narrow win in this district with a rating of ‘Tilt R.’
New York’s 17th
Representative Sean Patrick Maloney entered the race for this newly redesigned district after incumbent Congressman Mondaire Jones decided to run in New York’s 10th district. Maloney faces Republican Assemblyman Mike Lawler. Maloney’s unpopularity in his district along with recent polling showing Lawler ahead by an average of 5 points show a probable pickup for the GOP, unseating Maloney who also serves as the House Democratic Caucus’ chief campaign director. We rate this race as ‘Likely R.’
New Hampshire’s 1st
Incumbent Congressman Chris Pappas faces Republican Karoline Leavitt for the highly contested district, with the district having changed party control more times on average than others around the country. Pappas and Leavitt, supported by millions of dollars in outside spending, are in a dead heat in polling, with Pappas leading by less than 2 points. The concurrent Senate race however may prove helpful to Pappas as Senator Hassan could pull Pappas across the finish line in the Granite State. Therefore, The Fenwick Review rates this race as ‘Tilt D.’
Maine’s 2nd
Incumbent Democrat Jared Golden faces former Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin, whom Golden unseated 4 years ago. The race is noteworthy for its use of ranked-choice voting, which has brought it great media attention. Though President Trump did win the district with 53%, the state’s strong Democratic tilt and the fundraising lag Poliquin suffers from, we predict the seat will be narrowly retained by Golden, with a rating of ‘Tilt D.’
Michigan’s 7th
Incumbent Democrat Elissa Slotkin faces Republican Tom Barrett in a district President Trump carried by almost 2 points. The race has been dubbed the most expensive race in the country, having spent an aggregate $27 million. We predict a GOP pickup here, given the recent momentum Barrett has seized from President Biden’s high disapproval rate and heavy outside spending from the NRCC and RNC. The Fenwick Review rates this race as ‘Tilt R.’
Rhode Island’s 2nd
Former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R) and Rhode Island Treasurer Seth Magaziner (D) are battling to replace retiring Rep. James Langevin (D) in a district President Biden won handedly. Mayor Fung’s popularity in Rhode Island’s 2nd largest city, his moderate and pro-abortion Republican image in the likeness of Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA) who endorsed him, and a strong Republican environment make this race super competitive. By account of this district’s Democrat leanings and a strong Republican candidate and environment, The Fenwick Review rates this race as a ‘Toss-up.’
Alaska’s At Large
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) won a special election earlier this year against former Gov. Sarah Palin, a Tea Party candidate, and Nick Begich, a moderate Republican. The split in Republican votes favored Peltola, who is benefitted by a mutual endorsement of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and the use of ranked-choice voting also favored her, as many moderate Begich supporters favored Peltola over conservative Palin as their second choice when Begich was eliminated in the first round. Increased turnout in this Republican-leaning state as well as a more favorable environment for Republicans in November may give Republicans a chance to retake this seat, but with the use of ranked-choice voting and the split moderate Republican vote, The Fenwick Review rates this as ‘Leans D.’
Texas’ 34th
Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) became the first Mexican-born Congresswoman earlier this year in a special election to replace Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX) in a blue-leaning district that has swung toward the GOP in recent years. This seat was redistricted to be even bluer, while the neighboring 15th District was redistricted to be redder, causing 15th District incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez — who won his 2020 race only narrowly under the old lines — to run in Flores’s district. While Flores started as an underdog in the D+9 district, the Republican trends in South Texas and her strength as a candidate may overcome the new lines and the fact she’s running against a more established incumbent. Because of the mixture of factors, The Fenwick Review rates this race as a ‘Toss-up.’
Oregon’s 5th
Earlier this year, moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) lost re-nomination to progressive Jaime McLeod-Skinner. This, combined with a strong Republican environment, an unusually competitive gubernatorial race, and a solid GOP candidate in Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has led this blue-hued purple district drawn specifically by the Oregonian legislature to shore up Democratic representation to be one of the easier pickups for the GOP. The Fenwick Review rates this race as ‘Leans R.’
Connecticut’s 5th
Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) is facing a surprisingly tough reelection bid against state Senator George Logan (R). Logan, a Black pro-abortion moderate, has generated steam in this Republican-favored environment against the progressive Democrat Hayes, capitalizing on the high crime and inflation message on which many Republicans in blue areas are campaigning. Logan, like Senate hopeful Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, has advocated balance in Congress, stating he would oppose any legislation that would interfere with abortion law in Connecticut. With the state and the district’s Democratic lean and relatively strong incumbent, The Fenwick Review rates this race as ‘Tilt D.’